Skeptical Thoughts on Energy, Science and Global Warming

Figuring Out Ice Ages

A lot has been written about melting ice caps and new mini-ice ages recently. Seems that science can't decide if we are going to drown in rising oceans or starve because summer will be a thing of the past. This leaves the layperson justifiably confused as to who to believe—the climate change alarmists who back rapid global warming or those who warn of a new glacial period. There is little certainty when it comes to science but one thing that can be counted on is our ignorance. Quite simply, scientists cannot predict with any certainty what Earth's climate will do next. If someone tries to tell you different they are lying.

The Queen's Daemon, Doug L. Hoffman's latest SF novel released.

Resilient Earth Press is pleased to announce that The Queen's Daemon, Doug Hoffman's fifth novel and the second book of the T'aafhal Legacy, is now available for purchase online at Amazon.com. The voyage of the Peggy Sue continues under the command of Captain Billy Ray Vincent. The story resumes a year after the events on the deadly planet Paradise, chronicled in book one, Ghosts of Orion. The Peggy Sue has gone farther away from Earth than any human built ship, “almost one hundred light-years as the crow flies,” as Captain Vincent observed. After stopping to fill up on deuterium at an icy moon circling an unnamed planet of an insignificant remnant of a dead star, the Captain decides to head back to Earth and home.

Atlantic Ocean's Circulation Yields Inevitable Surprises

The term “settled science” gets tossed around in the media a lot these days. Mostly by non-scientists, who know no better, and by some errant scientists, who should. In 2002, the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Abrupt Climate Change published its findings in a book entitled Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. A new report in Science recaps the surprising discoveries made since then, and they are big. So big that ocean circulation models, integral parts of all climate models, do not accurately predict reality. The observed change in AMOC strength was found to lie well outside the range of interannual variability predicted by coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. Sounds like circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is not so settled.

Crank of the Week – June 19, 2015 – Pope Francis

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio and current leader of the worldwide Catholic Church, announced this week an encyclical about climate change. While its content was known through numerous leaks and statements from Vatican spokesmen, the actual document is stunning for its sketchy science and anti-capitalist moralizing. Climate change alarmists have hailed the Pope's “coming out” against climate change as a great victory for eco-activists everywhere. This ignores the fact that Francis has no scientific qualifications to make such a statement and that the Pope's stand on other issues—abortion, women priests, gay marriage, etc—are anathema to the majority of green leftists. If anything, the Catholic Church's meddling in science brings back memories of Galileo and persecution of other early scientific thinkers. The scientific revolution began when church and state were separated; this is a grand step backward for human progress.

Burning Dinosaurs & CO2

The Triassic–Jurassic boundary 200 million years ago marked the beginning of the dinosaurs’ dominance of the entire planet. Following the worst ever extinction event at the end of the Permian, 252 mya, dinosaurs started showing up in the fossil record around 245 mya but did not spread to all areas of the globe until the end of the Triassic. A new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) posits one possible explanation for why the spread of dinosaurs was stymied. Sadly, this interesting but not conclusive report was immediately seized upon by climate alarmists as a cautionary tale about atmospheric CO2 levels. A news item in Science online labels modern levels “alarming” and implies that a fiery fate, like the one that held the dinosaurs at bay for so long ago, awaits us all.

Credibility Lost

Climate alarmists are all atwitter over a new paper from researchers at NOAA/NCDC. In that paper the claim is made that the 18+ year pause in global warming is not real and that temperatures have been going up as expected. After more than a decade agonizing over the cause for the pause, desperately searching for the “missing” heat, dogmatic climate scientists have given up and simply declared the whole “hiatus” an accounting error. The temperature record in question is a kludged up global yearly average based on a hodgepodge of reporting stations, some on land and others at sea. In performing a “reanalysis” of the temperature record it was “discovered” that changes in the way temperatures were measured, particularly at sea, were systematically wrong, and “correcting” these readings causes the whole pesky pause thing to go away. What isn't mentioned are the other datasets that clearly show the pause is real, including two different satellite records. Has the climate catastrophe cabal given up all pretense of doing real science and decided to manipulate the data to give the answer they want? Many think so.

The Tide Is Turning, Time For Global Cooling

Climate scientists have constructed models to predict what Earth's climate will look like decades, even hundreds of years in the future. Unfortunately, many major components of Earth's climate system have not been accurately monitored for very long. This makes such predictions suspect if not laughable. A case in point are variations in ocean circulation and temperature. In the Atlantic there is a cycle for sea surface temperatures variation called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is linked with decadal scale climate fluctuations like European summer precipitation, rainfall in Europe and India, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. A new study in the journal Nature reports that the AMO is again transitioning to a negative phase, meaning the vaunted “pause” in global warming may be with us for decades. In fact, scientists at the University of Southampton predict that cooling in the Atlantic Ocean could cool global temperatures a half a degree Celsius.

Crank of the Week – May 11, 2015 – Bill McKibben

Barack Obama is normally viewed as a friend to those on the green fringe. Whether it is his obstructionist dithering over the Keystone XL pipeline or draconian EPA regulations smothering the domestic coal industry, Obama has been a champion of green policies and mouthpiece for global warming scammers. It takes someone far to the left of sanity to label the US President a “climate denier” but that is precisely what this week's crank has done. Climate denier is a label usually reserved for Republicans who are skeptical of anthropogenic global warming, but environmentalist Bill McKibben has now given that label to President Obama.

Europe's Illusion of a Renewable Future

Germany is the economic powerhouse of the EU, with a far larger and more industrialized economy than other European nations—the fourth largest in the world. Given such a large industrial base it is unsurprising that Germany needs reliable power, which makes its headlong rush into renewable energy, called Energiewende (“energy transition”), even more mystifying than similar attempts by smaller EU states. Now come reports that the country’s rapid expansion into solar, wind, and other renewables has not been entirely smooth. Subsidies and regulations are promoting ill considered wind and solar installations while driving up costs. Slipped in among the solar panels and wind turbines are "biomass" generators—in other words, things that burn wood and agricultural waste—and the green party's anti-nuclear pogrom has led to an upsurge in coal usage. This hardly sounds like progress. Meanwhile, a new article makes bold claims for three of the smaller EU markets. Denmark, Portugal, and Spain have all made rapid transitions away from fossil fuels for electricity, but each in a different way. Are they truly examples for the world to follow?

Fungi & Nitrous Oxide, The Forgotten Greenhouse Gas

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a known greenhouse gas (GHG) that is more potent than CO2 and is a contributing factor in ozone layer depletion, yet little has been published on natural sources of this compound. Despite the importance of fungi in several soil functions, the production of N2O by fungi has only been studied in a limited number of strains. A new report in the journal Nature has revealed that may types of fungi naturally produce N2O. Obviously this is more of that “settled science” the climate alarmists forgot to mention.

Climate: The Unsettled Science

Despite what gets reported in the news media, there are good climate scientists out there, quietly laboring away at that “settled science.” They are actually trying to understand climate instead of making unsubstantiated, bombastic predictions about future global warming. As a result, several recent papers have cast additional doubt on the validity of climate models as they now stand. In one, wide variation in solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere adds to the major errors in basic physics inherent in the so-called “state of the art” climate models. Another paper, on aerosol radiative forcing, casts doubt on the fundamental assertion of climate alarmists regarding the warming power of CO2. Adding to the stink over the settled science claim, the journal Nature carried a news article that says such assertions are “absolutely not true” and pleads for a new crop of physicists to help unravel the persistent ongoing climate mysteries. The outlook for climate science is cloudy indeed.

Climate Models' “Basic Physics” Falls Short of Real Science

Recently, a PR offensive has been mounted by the minions of climate alarmism, attempting to rehabilitate the soiled reputation of climate models. Most everyone by now has heard of the 18+ year pause in global temperature increase, dubbed the “pause” by climate change advocates. This hiatus in global temperature increase, happening in the face of ever rising atmospheric CO2 levels, has caused even the most die hard climate alarmists to doubt the veracity of climate science's digital oracles. The latest phrase being test marketed in the green stooge press is the claim that climate models are just “Basic Physics”, implying that they are in some way scientifically accurate. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Nominate Judith Curry as the next IPCC Chair

As you may know, the current head of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajenda K. Pachauri has been forced to resign over sexual harassment allegations by women on his staff. Out on bail, Pachauri’s downward spiral continues: On March 1, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi accepted Pachauri’s resignation from the Prime Minister’s climate change council. Given this opening at the top of the world's premier climate change organization we think it time a real climate scientist heads the agency. Help us by signing the petition to President Obama today.

If At First You're Not Believed, Lie, Lie Again

Proving the old adage, if your first lie isn't believed lie again and make it a whopper, NASA GISS announced another study proclaiming imminent climate catastrophe. This time it's the US Southwest and the scourge is not just drought, it's Megadrought! The report predicts that decades-long droughts are likely to ravage the US Southwest and Great Plains within the next century. “This drying could be worse than any other in the past 1,000 years, including a 'megadrought' seven centuries ago that helped drive an ancient civilization to collapse,” wails Nature online. But just how did the researchers come to this conclusion and what evidence do they base their predictions on? As it turns out the whole thing is a house of cards.

The Sixth Assassin, Allen Simmons' New Suspense Thriller

The Resilient Earth Press is pleased to announce that Allen Simmons' latest suspense thriller, The Sixth Assassin, is now available on Amazon's kindle eBook reader. On September 6, 1972, eight people were gunned down at the Fountain Valley Golf Course on the island of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Five men, all island natives, were arrested, tried and convicted of the murders. What no one knew was that there was a sixth assassin present at the Fountain Valley Massacre. Visit an island paradise of sandy beaches, blue skies, and palm trees, where hatred and murder lurk just beneath the sun drenched surface.

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